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At this point, in my opinion, I do not think the bear market is over yet. Could it head higher than it is now over the next few weeks or months? Of course. Anything is possible. But, if we fast forward 6 months or so, I believe the market could be lower. Although we have had a lot of Tech Stocks drop 60-80%+, the big names like AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL and MSFT have held up strong. They will, in theory, be the last ones to fall.
Nothing is certain in the stock market, and anything is possible. However, with the information that I have gathered at this point, I doubt the market can have a recovery like we did in 2020. Large Technology growth stocks tend to move opposite of interest rates. As interest rates rise, growth stocks will fall, in general. So at this point in time, to me, it seems like the Federal reserve has no choice but to continue to raise interest rates. And - if they do continue to raise interest rates, risk-on assets like Crypto and Stocks will have a hard time fully recovering and could even head lower.
If you look at the trends below, you can see that the longer-term trends are still bearish and the shorter-term trends are bullish. I think it is possible that the market trades in a very large range going forward. We will have to see.
Percentages below their All-Time Highs:
QQQ -26.1%
SPY -17.7%
AAPL -15.7%
AMZN -35.1%
GOOGL -28.8%
META -55.9%
MSFT -25.5%
SPY.Close
2022-07-22 395.09
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
SPY Price is in a One Week Uptrend
SPY Price is in a One Month Uptrend
SPY Price is in a Three Month Downtrend
SPY Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
SPY Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
QQQ.Close
2022-07-22 301.99
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
QQQ Price is in a One Week Uptrend
QQQ Price is in a One Month Uptrend
QQQ Price is in a Three Month Downtrend
QQQ Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
QQQ Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
XLK.Close
2022-07-22 137.22
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
XLK Price is in a One Week Uptrend
XLK Price is in a One Month Uptrend
XLK Price is in a Three Month Downtrend
XLK Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
XLK Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
MSFT.Close
2022-07-22 260.36
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
MSFT Price is in a One Week Uptrend
MSFT Price is in a Three Month Downtrend
MSFT Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
MSFT Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
ADBE.Close
2022-07-22 401.9
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
ADBE Price is in a One Week Uptrend
ADBE Price is in a One Month Uptrend
ADBE Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
ADBE Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
NVDA.Close
2022-07-22 173.19
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
NVDA Price is in a One Week Uptrend
NVDA Price is in a Two Week Uptrend
NVDA Price is in a Three Month Downtrend
NVDA Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
NVDA Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
AMD.Close
2022-07-22 88.1
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
AMD Price is in a One Week Uptrend
AMD Price is in a Two Week Uptrend
AMD Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
AMD Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
AAPL.Close
2022-07-22 154.09
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
AAPL Price is in a One Week Uptrend
AAPL Price is in a Two Week Uptrend
AAPL Price is in a One Month Uptrend
AAPL Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
AMZN.Close
2022-07-22 122.42
[1] "Breakouts"
[1] "Trends:"
AMZN Price is in a One Week Uptrend
AMZN Price is in a One Month Uptrend
AMZN Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
AMZN Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
GOOGL.Close
2022-07-22 107.9
[1] "Breakouts"
GOOGL set a 20 Day Low Today
[1] "Trends:"
GOOGL Price is in a 100 Day Downtrend
GOOGL Price is in a 200 Day Downtrend
[1] "Volume Analysis:"
GOOGL Volume was 30.40309 % Above its 20 Day Average Volume
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